Track record

Honest backtest results, including misses. "Interval coverage" is the realized fraction of outcomes that fell inside our stated prediction band — for a well-calibrated 80% interval it should be near 0.80.

Informational only — not financial advice. No forecast is certain or guaranteed.

LevelMetricHorizonMAEMAPEInterval coverageNModel
countyhome_value3mo3,358.150.9%0.9288forecast-gbr-conformal-v1
countyhome_value6mo6,744.971.8%0.91288forecast-gbr-conformal-v1
countyhome_value12mo10,0542.5%0.93288forecast-gbr-conformal-v1
countymedian_sale_price3mo27,364.8112.7%0.99288forecast-gbr-conformal-v1
countymedian_sale_price6mo28,032.8712.9%0.99288forecast-gbr-conformal-v1
countymedian_sale_price12mo28,219.8812.6%0.99288forecast-gbr-conformal-v1
countyrent_index3mo15.290.9%0.96288forecast-gbr-conformal-v1
countyrent_index6mo23.211.4%0.96288forecast-gbr-conformal-v1
countyrent_index12mo25.621.5%0.98288forecast-gbr-conformal-v1
nationhome_value3mo2,218.980.7%0.8824forecast-gbr-conformal-v1
nationhome_value6mo3,849.631.2%0.9224forecast-gbr-conformal-v1
nationhome_value12mo5,821.911.8%0.9624forecast-gbr-conformal-v1
nationrent_index3mo8.480.5%0.9224forecast-gbr-conformal-v1
nationrent_index6mo15.651%0.9224forecast-gbr-conformal-v1
nationrent_index12mo19.081.1%0.9624forecast-gbr-conformal-v1
statehome_value3mo2,925.90.7%0.91288forecast-gbr-conformal-v1
statehome_value6mo5,595.511.3%0.94288forecast-gbr-conformal-v1
statehome_value12mo9,263.232.2%0.95288forecast-gbr-conformal-v1
statemedian_sale_price3mo11,399.172.4%0.97288forecast-gbr-conformal-v1
statemedian_sale_price6mo14,129.063.1%0.99288forecast-gbr-conformal-v1
statemedian_sale_price12mo14,555.243.1%1288forecast-gbr-conformal-v1
ziphome_value3mo9,628.271.1%1288forecast-gbr-conformal-v1
ziphome_value6mo18,775.322.2%1288forecast-gbr-conformal-v1
ziphome_value12mo33,345.614.2%0.97288forecast-gbr-conformal-v1
ziprent_index3mo89.971.6%0.97288forecast-gbr-conformal-v1
ziprent_index6mo98.891.9%0.99288forecast-gbr-conformal-v1
ziprent_index12mo128.432.5%0.99288forecast-gbr-conformal-v1