United States · 12-mo home value
$370,721
projected 12-month outlook
▲ rising
Low $362,023High $379,628
- 80% range
- $362,023 – $379,628
- Confidence
- 70% (moderate confidence)
United States housing dashboard
An honest, interval-based read on the U.S. housing market — every forecast shows its range and confidence, backed by a public track record of past accuracy. Start with the national picture below, then drill into a state or open the full interactive map.
Informational only — not financial advice. No forecast is certain or guaranteed.
State home-value forecast (predicted)
observed as of 2026-04-30Each state is shaded by its predicted next-12-month change in home value (the AI forecast, Zillow ZHVI basis) — green is rising, red is falling, gray means no forecast yet. Hover a state to see the predicted figure with its confidence alongside the observed trailing-12-month trend. No forecast is certain; each is shown with its confidence. Click a state to open its full outlook.
Hover a state
Predicted 12-mo home value:falling → risingno forecastHover for predicted (with confidence) + observed.
The current market assessment is:
Home values are projected essentially flat over 12 months at $370,721 (80% interval $362,023-$379,628, confidence 0.70), with the model's 24- and 36-month paths tilting lower as macro headwinds accumulate.
An automated analyst read on the U.S. housing market — informational only, not financial advice. No forecast is certain or guaranteed. Read the full analyst note ↓
For sellers
- Months of supply sits at 4.6 (NAR, tier 3, flat vs prior) — near the balanced 4-5 month zone, so pricing power is not what it was; expect real competition from other listings.
- Existing home sales fell to 4.06M (NAR, tier 3, -1.7% MoM), signaling softer buyer demand at current rates.
- Zillow's home value forecast at 12 months ($370,721; interval $362,023-$379,628; confidence 0.70) is only ~0.7% above the latest $368,198 — modest upside, and the 24-36mo path tilts lower.
- The FHFA repeat-sales index (tier 1) rose 0.7% in the latest quarter, so recorded reality is still ticking up, if slowly.
Takeaway: pricing power is thinning; the near-term still favors sellers marginally, but the multi-year path is not on your side.
For buyers
- 30-year mortgage rate is 6.68% (Aug 2026), up from 6.35% a year ago — affordability remains the binding constraint.
- Supply at 4.6 months is the loosest reading in this cycle's context, giving buyers more selection and some negotiating room.
- The 12-month home value forecast ($370,721; interval $362,023-$379,628; confidence 0.70) is essentially flat, and the 36-month point drifts to $312,654 (interval $287,084-$340,501, confidence 0.45) — waiting carries less price risk than usual, though confidence at that horizon is low.
- Consumer sentiment at 49.5 (down from 55.1 a year ago) and a positive but thin 10y-3m spread (0.77) point to a cautious macro backdrop.
Takeaway: buyers have more leverage than they've had in a while; rates, not price momentum, are the main obstacle.
Market Pulse
Where United States is headed — a considered read from now out to 3 years, on a −100 (weakening) to +100 (strengthening) scale. A considered read, not a guarantee.
Now
−8
on −100 to +100
Balanced, softening at the margin
65% confidence
Today's read is roughly balanced but softening: supply at 4.6 months is near neutral, existing sales are down 1.7% MoM, and the 30-year mortgage rate at 6.68% is a persistent headwind, even as FHFA (tier 1) still shows +0.7% recorded appreciation. The 12-month home value forecast is essentially flat (+0.7% vs latest), so the near-term pulse hovers just below zero, while the model's 24- and 36-month points imply a mild-to-notable drift lower. Uncertainty grows with horizon — intervals widen and confidence decays from 0.70 at 12mo to 0.45 at 36mo — so the longer-horizon scores are softer, wider-band reads rather than firm calls.
- 012mo price forecast$370,721, only +0.7% vs latest $368,198 (confidence 0.70)
- −24-36mo price pathPoints drift to $358,002 then $312,654; wide bands, decaying confidence
- 0Months of supply4.6 months, flat — near balanced, not tight
- −Existing home sales4.06M, -1.7% MoM — softer demand
- −Mortgage rate6.68%, up from 6.35% YoY — affordability headwind
- +FHFA repeat-sales (tier 1)+0.7% latest quarter — recorded reality still positive
- +Rent forecast12mo rent to $1,989 (confidence 0.71) — mild firming
- −Data trustNAR median appreciation runs ~7.7pp below FHFA; anchor on FHFA
Our formula reads: +16· AI's considered score now: −8
The AI weighs everything; the formula is the cross-check. How this is calculated.
This is a considered read, not a guarantee. The score is plotted now and at 12, 24 and 36 months; confidence falls and the 36-month read is faded because uncertainty grows with the horizon. How this is calculated.
Price Trajectory
Home-value appreciation for United States — recent observed history, then the forecast out to +1 and +3 years. A projection, not a guarantee.
Observed — rising (YoY +)Observed — falling (YoY −)Forecast| 0% baseline · vertical line = now (observed | forecast)
+1yr forecast+0.7%
80% range: -1.7% to +3.1%
Confidence 70% · moderate confidence
+3yr forecast-15.1%
80% range: -22.0% to -7.5%
Confidence 45% · lower confidence — projects further out, so treat with extra caution
Observed bars are the trailing-12-month change in home value (green = rising, red = falling). The orange line is a forecast, not a guarantee — each point shows its confidence, and the +3yr projection is faded with a wider band because it is less certain than the +1yr. Every forecast carries an interval and confidence. How this is calculated.
The data behind this assessment
The map above shades each state by its predicted next-12-month home-value change (hover for the observed trailing trend and the forecast's confidence). The analyses below — the national outlook, key indicators, track record, and data-trust checks — are what feed the assessment. The forward-looking forecasts always carry an interval and confidence.
National outlook
U.S. home-value forecast over the next 12 months — always shown with its range and confidence.
Track record
Real out-of-sample accuracy from our published backtests — misses included.
- Avg. error (MAPE)
- 3.4%
- lower is better
- Interval coverage
- 0.96
- target ≈ 0.80 for an 80% band
Across 27 backtested metric/horizon combinations (6,192 evaluations).
Data trust
How much we trust each source. Each source is measured against recorded sales (FHFA, our Tier-1 anchor). We weight recorded transactions higher and flag any source that diverges.
- FHFA House Price IndexTier 1 · recorded✓
Tier 1 — recorded repeat-sales; our ground-truth anchor.
Ensemble weight 1.00
- County Recorder (recorded deeds)Tier 1 · recorded✓
Tier 1 — recorded county deeds; treated as ground truth alongside FHFA. Near-perfect agreement with the anchor (bias 0.0pt).
Ensemble weight 1.00
- Zillow ResearchTier 2 · modeled✓
Tracks the recorded index closely (bias −0.2pt) — trusted.
Ensemble weight 57.23
- Redfin Data CenterTier 2 · modeled⚠
Runs ~8% hot vs recorded sales at city/neighborhood level — flagged & down-weighted.
Ensemble weight 0.18
- National Assoc. of RealtorsTier 3 · listing / industry⚠
Runs ~773% soft vs recorded sales at nation level — flagged & down-weighted.
Ensemble weight 7.12
Flagged divergences
- nar · median sale price appreciation vs fhfa (nation)bias -772.9% n=3
- redfin · Median sale price (city)bias +8.4% n=156
- redfin · Median sale price (neighborhood)bias +6.1% n=64
Verdicts are derived from measured bias versus the FHFA recorded repeat-sales index. This is a data-quality signal, not investment advice; all forecasts carry an interval and stated confidence.
Explore the map
A national choropleth shaded by predicted appreciation. Zoom from the nation to states and counties.
Prefer a spatial view? The full interactive map lets you hover any area for its range and confidence, and click through to states and counties. Areas not yet generated show in neutral gray.
Jump into a state
Open a state's outlook, indicators, and counties.
Looking for another state? Open the map and click any state. Most states aren't generated yet — opening one shows current indicators and lets members generate a forecast.
Current market indicators
Observed current data for the United States (plus macro rates) that feed the assessment above — distinct from the forecasts, which carry intervals and confidence.
Analyst note
daily · 8/23/2026Home values are projected essentially flat over 12 months at $370,721 (80% interval $362,023-$379,628, confidence 0.70), with the model's 24- and 36-month paths tilting lower as macro headwinds accumulate.
For sellers
- Months of supply sits at 4.6 (NAR, tier 3, flat vs prior) — near the balanced 4-5 month zone, so pricing power is not what it was; expect real competition from other listings.
- Existing home sales fell to 4.06M (NAR, tier 3, -1.7% MoM), signaling softer buyer demand at current rates.
- Zillow's home value forecast at 12 months ($370,721; interval $362,023-$379,628; confidence 0.70) is only ~0.7% above the latest $368,198 — modest upside, and the 24-36mo path tilts lower.
- The FHFA repeat-sales index (tier 1) rose 0.7% in the latest quarter, so recorded reality is still ticking up, if slowly.
Takeaway: pricing power is thinning; the near-term still favors sellers marginally, but the multi-year path is not on your side.
For buyers
- 30-year mortgage rate is 6.68% (Aug 2026), up from 6.35% a year ago — affordability remains the binding constraint.
- Supply at 4.6 months is the loosest reading in this cycle's context, giving buyers more selection and some negotiating room.
- The 12-month home value forecast ($370,721; interval $362,023-$379,628; confidence 0.70) is essentially flat, and the 36-month point drifts to $312,654 (interval $287,084-$340,501, confidence 0.45) — waiting carries less price risk than usual, though confidence at that horizon is low.
- Consumer sentiment at 49.5 (down from 55.1 a year ago) and a positive but thin 10y-3m spread (0.77) point to a cautious macro backdrop.
Takeaway: buyers have more leverage than they've had in a while; rates, not price momentum, are the main obstacle.
Outlook
The model projects Zillow home value near $370,721 at 12 months (80% interval $362,023-$379,628, confidence 0.70) — roughly flat versus the latest $368,198 (tier 2). Longer horizons soften: $358,002 at 24 months (interval $334,669-$382,962, confidence 0.56) and $312,654 at 36 months (interval $287,084-$340,501, confidence 0.45), an implied -15% point path with a wide band. Rents are forecast to firm modestly, reaching $1,989 at 12 months (interval $1,950-$2,028, confidence 0.71). Confidence decays with horizon, so treat the 24-36mo path as directional context, not a precise call.
Recent trend
Recorded reality (FHFA HPI, tier 1) rose 0.7% in the latest quarter to 713.09, and Case-Shiller US sits at 335.10 (May 2026) versus 328.89 a year ago. Zillow's modeled home value (tier 2) is essentially flat month-over-month at $368,198. NAR's median sale price (tier 3) fell 2.0% to $434,100 in July, existing sales dipped to 4.06M, and months of supply held at 4.6. Unemployment eased to 4.10%, but the 30-year mortgage rate ticked up to 6.68% and consumer sentiment weakened to 49.5.
Data trust
One divergence is flagged: NAR's median sale price appreciation runs on average about 7.7 percentage points below FHFA's repeat-sales measure (bias -7.7, MAE 14.0 across a small n=3). For the appreciation signal, anchor on FHFA (tier 1, +0.7% latest); use the NAR median as color on "what sold," not as the trend. Zillow's home value appreciation tracks FHFA closely (bias -0.10, MAE 1.36 over n=101), so its tier-2 level and forecast are broadly consistent with recorded reality.
Local news
Coverage cited in the context leans cautious: The American Bazaar noted the US housing market "stumbled in July," and two Yahoo Finance pieces flagged "3 alarming predictions" with the market "on pace for its worst year since 2011," plus Gen Z sentiment around a potential 2026 downturn. Counterweight comes from a Businesswire summary of a Homes.com report showing US home prices up 2.6% even as inventory expands, and a qz.com ranking of cities positioned for future gains. An eciks.org item echoed the 30-year rate climbing to ~6.69%, consistent with the FRED reading here. The Regulatory Review discussed a policy path toward more affordable housing supply — a longer-run structural factor, not a near-term driver.
Informational only, not financial advice. No forecast here is certain or guaranteed; every prediction is shown with its interval and confidence.
Informational only — not financial advice. No forecast is certain or guaranteed. Forecasts always carry an interval and a confidence score.