United States · 12-mo home value
$370,731
projected 12-month outlook
▲ rising
Low $362,033High $379,638
- 80% range
- $362,033 – $379,638
- Confidence
- 70% (moderate confidence)
United States housing dashboard
An honest, interval-based read on the U.S. housing market — every forecast shows its range and confidence, backed by a public track record of past accuracy. Start with the national picture below, then drill into a state or open the full interactive map.
Informational only — not financial advice. No forecast is certain or guaranteed.
State home-value forecast (predicted)
observed as of 2026-04-30Each state is shaded by its predicted next-12-month change in home value (the AI forecast, Zillow ZHVI basis) — green is rising, red is falling, gray means no forecast yet. Hover a state to see the predicted figure with its confidence alongside the observed trailing-12-month trend. No forecast is certain; each is shown with its confidence. Click a state to open its full outlook.
Hover a state
Predicted 12-mo home value:falling → risingno forecastHover for predicted (with confidence) + observed.
The current market assessment is:
The model projects U.S. home values near $370,731 over 12 months (80% interval $362,033-$379,638, confidence 0.70), with a flatter near-term path and a softer 24-36 month read as rates, affordability, and supply weigh on demand.
An automated analyst read on the U.S. housing market — informational only, not financial advice. No forecast is certain or guaranteed. Read the full analyst note ↓
For sellers
- Months of supply has risen to 4.9 (up 6.5% vs July, tier-3 NAR) — inventory is building and competition among sellers is increasing.
- Existing home sales ran at 3.98M in August (down 2.0% MoM, tier-3 NAR), signaling cooler demand against a 7.28% 30-year mortgage rate.
- The 12-month home-value forecast is roughly flat at $370,731 (interval $362,033-$379,638, confidence 0.70), so waiting is unlikely to deliver meaningful price upside at the national level.
Takeaway: seller leverage is softening — pricing realistically matters more than holding out for appreciation.
For buyers
- The 30-year mortgage rate sits at 7.28% (up from 6.24% a year ago), the biggest affordability headwind in the data.
- Supply at 4.9 months is close to a balanced market, giving buyers more selection and some negotiating room than in recent tighter years.
- The 12-month price forecast is near-flat (+0.7% vs latest, interval -1.7% to +3.1%, confidence 0.70), and the 24- and 36-month paths tilt lower (-2.8% and -15.1% point estimates, with wide bands), so the urgency to buy ahead of appreciation is limited.
Takeaway: buyers face a rate problem, not a bidding-war problem — leverage on price is improving.
Market Pulse
Where United States is headed — a considered read from now out to 3 years, on a −100 (weakening) to +100 (strengthening) scale. A considered read, not a guarantee.
Now
−12
on −100 to +100
Cooling toward balanced
72% confidence
Supply has risen to 4.9 months, sales are slipping, and the 30-year mortgage rate sits at 7.28% against softer sentiment — a market cooling toward balance today. The 12-month home-value forecast is essentially flat (+0.7% vs latest), while the 24- and 36-month point estimates drift lower (-2.8% and -15.1%), nudging the forward scores negative. Confidence decays with horizon as the bands widen, so the 24/36-month reads are softer, harder-to-pin-down views rather than firm calls.
- 012mo price forecastNear-flat at $370,731 vs $368,198 latest
- −Long-horizon forecast drift24mo -2.8%, 36mo -15.1% point estimates (wide bands)
- −Months of supply4.9 months, up 6.5% MoM — approaching balanced
- −Mortgage rate7.28%, up from 6.24% a year ago
- −Existing home sales3.98M, down 2.0% MoM
- +Weighted price indicesFHFA +1.1% recent; Case-Shiller still rising YoY
- −Consumer sentiment51.7, weak
- 0Data trustNo source divergence flags; signals broadly consistent
Our formula reads: +16· AI's considered score now: −12
The AI weighs everything; the formula is the cross-check. How this is calculated.
This is a considered read, not a guarantee. The score is plotted now and at 12, 24 and 36 months; confidence falls and the 36-month read is faded because uncertainty grows with the horizon. How this is calculated.
Price Trajectory
Home-value appreciation for United States — recent observed history, then the forecast out to +1 and +3 years. A projection, not a guarantee.
Observed — rising (YoY +)Observed — falling (YoY −)Forecast| 0% baseline · vertical line = now (observed | forecast)
+1yr forecast+0.7%
80% range: -1.7% to +3.1%
Confidence 70% · moderate confidence
+3yr forecast-15.1%
80% range: -22.0% to -7.5%
Confidence 45% · lower confidence — projects further out, so treat with extra caution
Observed bars are the trailing-12-month change in home value (green = rising, red = falling). The orange line is a forecast, not a guarantee — each point shows its confidence, and the +3yr projection is faded with a wider band because it is less certain than the +1yr. Every forecast carries an interval and confidence. How this is calculated.
The data behind this assessment
The map above shades each state by its predicted next-12-month home-value change (hover for the observed trailing trend and the forecast's confidence). The analyses below — the national outlook, key indicators, track record, and data-trust checks — are what feed the assessment. The forward-looking forecasts always carry an interval and confidence.
National outlook
U.S. home-value forecast over the next 12 months — always shown with its range and confidence.
Track record
Real out-of-sample accuracy from our published backtests — misses included.
- Avg. error (MAPE)
- 3.4%
- lower is better
- Interval coverage
- 0.96
- target ≈ 0.80 for an 80% band
Across 27 backtested metric/horizon combinations (6,192 evaluations).
Data trust
How much we trust each source. Each source is measured against recorded sales (FHFA, our Tier-1 anchor). We weight recorded transactions higher and flag any source that diverges.
- FHFA House Price IndexTier 1 · recorded✓
Tier 1 — recorded repeat-sales; our ground-truth anchor.
Ensemble weight 1.00
- County Recorder (recorded deeds)Tier 1 · recorded✓
Tier 1 — recorded county deeds; treated as ground truth alongside FHFA. Near-perfect agreement with the anchor (bias 0.0pt).
Ensemble weight 1.00
- Zillow ResearchTier 2 · modeled✓
Tracks the recorded index closely (bias −0.2pt) — trusted.
Ensemble weight 57.23
- Redfin Data CenterTier 2 · modeled⚠
Runs ~8% hot vs recorded sales at city/neighborhood level — flagged & down-weighted.
Ensemble weight 0.18
- National Assoc. of RealtorsTier 3 · listing / industry·
Industry source; limited public history available — not yet conclusive.
Ensemble weight 45.75
Flagged divergences
- redfin · Median sale price (city)bias +8.4% n=156
- redfin · Median sale price (neighborhood)bias +6.1% n=64
Verdicts are derived from measured bias versus the FHFA recorded repeat-sales index. This is a data-quality signal, not investment advice; all forecasts carry an interval and stated confidence.
Explore the map
A national choropleth shaded by predicted appreciation. Zoom from the nation to states and counties.
Prefer a spatial view? The full interactive map lets you hover any area for its range and confidence, and click through to states and counties. Areas not yet generated show in neutral gray.
Jump into a state
Open a state's outlook, indicators, and counties.
Looking for another state? Open the map and click any state. Most states aren't generated yet — opening one shows current indicators and lets members generate a forecast.
Current market indicators
Observed current data for the United States (plus macro rates) that feed the assessment above — distinct from the forecasts, which carry intervals and confidence.
Analyst note
daily · 10/8/2026The model projects U.S. home values near $370,731 over 12 months (80% interval $362,033-$379,638, confidence 0.70), with a flatter near-term path and a softer 24-36 month read as rates, affordability, and supply weigh on demand.
For sellers
- Months of supply has risen to 4.9 (up 6.5% vs July, tier-3 NAR) — inventory is building and competition among sellers is increasing.
- Existing home sales ran at 3.98M in August (down 2.0% MoM, tier-3 NAR), signaling cooler demand against a 7.28% 30-year mortgage rate.
- The 12-month home-value forecast is roughly flat at $370,731 (interval $362,033-$379,638, confidence 0.70), so waiting is unlikely to deliver meaningful price upside at the national level.
Takeaway: seller leverage is softening — pricing realistically matters more than holding out for appreciation.
For buyers
- The 30-year mortgage rate sits at 7.28% (up from 6.24% a year ago), the biggest affordability headwind in the data.
- Supply at 4.9 months is close to a balanced market, giving buyers more selection and some negotiating room than in recent tighter years.
- The 12-month price forecast is near-flat (+0.7% vs latest, interval -1.7% to +3.1%, confidence 0.70), and the 24- and 36-month paths tilt lower (-2.8% and -15.1% point estimates, with wide bands), so the urgency to buy ahead of appreciation is limited.
Takeaway: buyers face a rate problem, not a bidding-war problem — leverage on price is improving.
Outlook
The Zillow ZHVI forecast points to $369,419 in 6 months (interval $360,346-$378,720, confidence 0.79) and $370,731 in 12 months (interval $362,033-$379,638, confidence 0.70) — essentially flat from today's $368,198. Longer out, the point estimates drift down to $357,952 at 24 months (interval $334,327-$383,247, confidence 0.56) and $312,654 at 36 months (interval $287,084-$340,501, confidence 0.45); those bands are wide and confidence decays with horizon, so treat the multi-year path as directional, not precise. Rents are forecast modestly higher, reaching $1,989 in 12 months (interval $1,950-$2,028, confidence 0.71). No Census-based migration or livability snapshot was supplied for the nation aggregate, so the multi-year softening read rests on the macro backdrop — a 7.28% mortgage rate, a 5.28% 10-year Treasury, and consumer sentiment at 51.7 — rather than on structural demographic signals.
Recent trend
FHFA's repeat-sales index (tier 1) rose 1.1% from January to April 2026 to 719.87, and Case-Shiller U.S. stands at 337.31 in July (up from 327.82 a year earlier) — both weighted measures still show positive year-over-year appreciation. Zillow's ZHVI (tier 2) is essentially flat month-over-month at $368,198. NAR's tier-3 median sale price fell 1.7% in August to $429,100, but that's a raw median sensitive to sales mix, so anchor the appreciation read on FHFA and Case-Shiller, not NAR's median. Months of supply climbed to 4.9 and sales slipped to 3.98M, consistent with the cooling narrative in reporting from NBC News ("High mortgage rates strand home sellers as buyer demand plummets") and Business Insider's coverage of metros where inventory is piling up.
Data trust
No divergence flags were triggered here; the tier-1 FHFA index, tier-2 Zillow ZHVI, and tier-3 NAR series are broadly telling a consistent story of flattening prices. As always, lean on FHFA and Case-Shiller for appreciation and treat NAR's raw median as mix-sensitive context.
Local news
Coverage in the DATA CONTEXT reinforces the mixed picture: Mortgage Professional America noted U.S. home price growth is still inching up, Norada highlighted the Case-Shiller 1.9% July reading, and Yahoo Finance argued the affordability crunch is unlikely to trigger an outright crash. Realtor.com's piece on the "Silver Tsunami" and AEI's starter-home commentary point to longer-run supply and demand shifts worth watching.
Informational only, not financial advice. No forecast here is certain or guaranteed; every prediction is shown with its interval and confidence.
Informational only — not financial advice. No forecast is certain or guaranteed. Forecasts always carry an interval and a confidence score.