United States · 12-mo home value
$370,721
projected 12-month outlook
▲ rising
Low $362,023High $379,628
- 80% range
- $362,023 – $379,628
- Confidence
- 70% (moderate confidence)
United States housing dashboard
An honest, interval-based read on the U.S. housing market — every forecast shows its range and confidence, backed by a public track record of past accuracy. Start with the national picture below, then drill into a state or open the full interactive map.
Informational only — not financial advice. No forecast is certain or guaranteed.
State home-value forecast (predicted)
observed as of 2026-04-30Each state is shaded by its predicted next-12-month change in home value (the AI forecast, Zillow ZHVI basis) — green is rising, red is falling, gray means no forecast yet. Hover a state to see the predicted figure with its confidence alongside the observed trailing-12-month trend. No forecast is certain; each is shown with its confidence. Click a state to open its full outlook.
Hover a state
Predicted 12-mo home value:falling → risingno forecastHover for predicted (with confidence) + observed.
The current market assessment is:
Home values are projected near $370,721 over 12 months (80% interval $362,023–$379,628, confidence 0.70), a modest +0.7% vs the latest Zillow reading; longer horizons soften as confidence decays.
An automated analyst read on the U.S. housing market — informational only, not financial advice. No forecast is certain or guaranteed. Read the full analyst note ↓
For sellers
- Zillow home value sits at $368,198 (Apr 2026, tier 2), essentially flat month-over-month — pricing momentum is muted, not booming.
- Months of supply is 4.5 (NAR, May 2026, tier 3), a broadly balanced reading — you face more competing inventory than in a classic seller's market.
- The 12-month forecast points modestly higher ($370,721; interval $362,023–$379,628, confidence 0.70), but the 24- and 36-month points drift lower ($358,002 then $312,654) with widening bands — time is not clearly on the seller's side beyond a year.
Takeaway: pricing power is thin; leverage is neutral-to-slightly-soft, and the window for confident appreciation is short.
For buyers
- The 30-year mortgage rate is 6.43% (Jul 2026, tier 1 FRED), down from 6.59% a year ago — a small affordability tailwind.
- Months of supply at 4.5 signals a broadly balanced market with more selection than during the 2021–22 crunch.
- The 12-month price forecast is roughly flat (+0.7%, interval −1.7% to +3.1%, confidence 0.70), and the 24/36-month points turn negative — waiting carries less price risk than in prior cycles, though the bands are wide.
Takeaway: buyer leverage is improving at the margin; balanced supply and easing rates reduce urgency.
Market Pulse
Where United States is headed — a considered read from now out to 3 years, on a −100 (weakening) to +100 (strengthening) scale. A considered read, not a guarantee.
Now
+4
on −100 to +100
Broadly balanced, slightly soft
68% confidence
The near-term picture is roughly balanced: Zillow values are flat, FHFA is inching up, months of supply sits at 4.5, and mortgage rates have eased to 6.43% — supportive at the margin. The 12-month price forecast is only +0.7% vs the latest anchor, so the 12mo pulse stays near neutral. The 24- and 36-month points drift meaningfully lower (−2.8% and −15.1%), and news coverage echoes a cooling, more balanced market, so the longer horizons tilt negative — with lower confidence and wider bands, so those are softer reads.
- 012mo price forecast+0.7% vs latest ZHVI, interval −1.7%..+3.1%
- −24–36mo forecastPoints at −2.8% and −15.1% with widening bands
- 0Months of supply4.5 months, broadly balanced
- +Mortgage rate6.43%, down from 6.59% a year ago
- −Consumer sentiment44.80, well below 58.20 a year ago
- +FHFA repeat-sales anchor+0.7% Oct→Jan, slow appreciation
- 0Data trustNAR median appreciation runs biased vs FHFA; anchor on FHFA/Zillow
Our formula reads: +16· AI's considered score now: +4
The AI weighs everything; the formula is the cross-check. How this is calculated.
This is a considered read, not a guarantee. The score is plotted now and at 12, 24 and 36 months; confidence falls and the 36-month read is faded because uncertainty grows with the horizon. How this is calculated.
Price Trajectory
Home-value appreciation for United States — recent observed history, then the forecast out to +1 and +3 years. A projection, not a guarantee.
Observed — rising (YoY +)Observed — falling (YoY −)Forecast| 0% baseline · vertical line = now (observed | forecast)
+1yr forecast+0.7%
80% range: -1.7% to +3.1%
Confidence 70% · moderate confidence
+3yr forecast-15.1%
80% range: -22.0% to -7.5%
Confidence 45% · lower confidence — projects further out, so treat with extra caution
Observed bars are the trailing-12-month change in home value (green = rising, red = falling). The orange line is a forecast, not a guarantee — each point shows its confidence, and the +3yr projection is faded with a wider band because it is less certain than the +1yr. Every forecast carries an interval and confidence. How this is calculated.
The data behind this assessment
The map above shades each state by its predicted next-12-month home-value change (hover for the observed trailing trend and the forecast's confidence). The analyses below — the national outlook, key indicators, track record, and data-trust checks — are what feed the assessment. The forward-looking forecasts always carry an interval and confidence.
National outlook
U.S. home-value forecast over the next 12 months — always shown with its range and confidence.
Track record
Real out-of-sample accuracy from our published backtests — misses included.
- Avg. error (MAPE)
- 3.4%
- lower is better
- Interval coverage
- 0.96
- target ≈ 0.80 for an 80% band
Across 27 backtested metric/horizon combinations (6,192 evaluations).
Data trust
How much we trust each source. Each source is measured against recorded sales (FHFA, our Tier-1 anchor). We weight recorded transactions higher and flag any source that diverges.
- FHFA House Price IndexTier 1 · recorded✓
Tier 1 — recorded repeat-sales; our ground-truth anchor.
Ensemble weight 1.00
- County Recorder (recorded deeds)Tier 1 · recorded✓
Tier 1 — recorded county deeds; treated as ground truth alongside FHFA. Near-perfect agreement with the anchor (bias 0.0pt).
Ensemble weight 1.00
- Zillow ResearchTier 2 · modeled✓
Tracks the recorded index closely (bias −0.2pt) — trusted.
Ensemble weight 57.23
- Redfin Data CenterTier 2 · modeled⚠
Runs ~8% hot vs recorded sales at city/neighborhood level — flagged & down-weighted.
Ensemble weight 0.18
- National Assoc. of RealtorsTier 3 · listing / industry⚠
Runs ~773% soft vs recorded sales at nation level — flagged & down-weighted.
Ensemble weight 7.12
Flagged divergences
- nar · median sale price appreciation vs fhfa (nation)bias -772.9% n=3
- redfin · Median sale price (city)bias +8.4% n=156
- redfin · Median sale price (neighborhood)bias +6.1% n=64
Verdicts are derived from measured bias versus the FHFA recorded repeat-sales index. This is a data-quality signal, not investment advice; all forecasts carry an interval and stated confidence.
Explore the map
A national choropleth shaded by predicted appreciation. Zoom from the nation to states and counties.
Prefer a spatial view? The full interactive map lets you hover any area for its range and confidence, and click through to states and counties. Areas not yet generated show in neutral gray.
Jump into a state
Open a state's outlook, indicators, and counties.
Looking for another state? Open the map and click any state. Most states aren't generated yet — opening one shows current indicators and lets members generate a forecast.
Current market indicators
Observed current data for the United States (plus macro rates) that feed the assessment above — distinct from the forecasts, which carry intervals and confidence.
Analyst note
daily · 7/9/2026Home values are projected near $370,721 over 12 months (80% interval $362,023–$379,628, confidence 0.70), a modest +0.7% vs the latest Zillow reading; longer horizons soften as confidence decays.
For sellers
- Zillow home value sits at $368,198 (Apr 2026, tier 2), essentially flat month-over-month — pricing momentum is muted, not booming.
- Months of supply is 4.5 (NAR, May 2026, tier 3), a broadly balanced reading — you face more competing inventory than in a classic seller's market.
- The 12-month forecast points modestly higher ($370,721; interval $362,023–$379,628, confidence 0.70), but the 24- and 36-month points drift lower ($358,002 then $312,654) with widening bands — time is not clearly on the seller's side beyond a year.
Takeaway: pricing power is thin; leverage is neutral-to-slightly-soft, and the window for confident appreciation is short.
For buyers
- The 30-year mortgage rate is 6.43% (Jul 2026, tier 1 FRED), down from 6.59% a year ago — a small affordability tailwind.
- Months of supply at 4.5 signals a broadly balanced market with more selection than during the 2021–22 crunch.
- The 12-month price forecast is roughly flat (+0.7%, interval −1.7% to +3.1%, confidence 0.70), and the 24/36-month points turn negative — waiting carries less price risk than in prior cycles, though the bands are wide.
Takeaway: buyer leverage is improving at the margin; balanced supply and easing rates reduce urgency.
Outlook
The model projects a 12-month Zillow home value near $370,721, with an 80% interval of $362,023–$379,628 and a confidence of 0.70. The 6-month point is $369,445 (interval $360,372–$378,747, confidence 0.79). Longer horizons soften: 24-month point $358,002 (interval $334,669–$382,962, confidence 0.56) and 36-month point $312,654 (interval $287,084–$340,501, confidence 0.45). Uncertainty grows with horizon, so the multi-year decline is a directional signal with a wide band, not a precise call. Rent is forecast to drift up to $1,989 at 12 months (interval $1,950–$2,028, confidence 0.71).
Recent trend
Zillow's home value is $368,198 (Apr 2026, tier 2), essentially flat vs March. The FHFA index — the tier-1 repeat-sales anchor — rose 0.7% from October to January (Jan 2026: 713.09), consistent with a slow-appreciation regime. NAR's median sale price is $429,300 (May 2026, tier 3, +2.8% m/m), but that is a raw median sensitive to sales mix, not an appreciation signal. Existing home sales lifted to 4.17M (+3.2%), months of supply held at 4.5, and unemployment eased to 4.20%. Macro backdrop: mortgage rates at 6.43% (down from 6.59% a year ago), 10Y Treasury at 4.49%, and consumer sentiment weak at 44.80 (vs 58.20 a year ago).
Data trust
The validation table flags a divergence: NAR's median sale price appreciation runs meaningfully below the FHFA repeat-sales index (bias −7.7, MAE 14.0), reflecting that NAR's raw median is a mix-sensitive tier-3 series. For appreciation, anchor on FHFA (tier 1) and Zillow ZHVI (tier 2, no flagged divergence), not the NAR median. Otherwise the sources are broadly consistent on direction.
Local news
Coverage in the DATA CONTEXT points to a cooling, more balanced backdrop: CNBC's Housing Market Survey reports far more agents seeing a balanced market, Newsweek reports home prices falling at a record pace, and Cotality notes prices held firmer in May 2026. VernonReporter confirms the 30-year rate dropped to 6.43%. AOL flags that a return to 2019 affordability would require a large adjustment, while citybiz notes demographic shifts may let supply catch up with demand — all consistent with the model's flat-to-softening multi-year path.
Informational only, not financial advice. No forecast here is certain or guaranteed; every prediction is shown with its interval and confidence.
Informational only — not financial advice. No forecast is certain or guaranteed. Forecasts always carry an interval and a confidence score.