New York

State-level housing outlook.

Informational only — not financial advice. No forecast is certain or guaranteed.

Market Pulse

Where New York is headed — a considered read from now out to 3 years, on a −100 (weakening) to +100 (strengthening) scale. A considered read, not a guarantee.

as of May 27, 2026
near term+100+500−50−100strengtheningweakening+18Now70% conf.+4012 mo70% conf.+9924 mo56% conf.+5436 mo45% conf.

Now

+18

on −100 to +100

Firm, seller-leaning

70% confidence

Deterministic synthesis: present-day signals net to a score of 18 (firm, seller-leaning), driven by the available supply, trend, and macro readings, with the home-value forecast rising over 12 months. The 12/24/36-month scores are anchored to that forecast's direction and its confidence decays with horizon, so the longer-dated reads are softer and wider-band; treat the 24/36-month figures as indicative.

  • 0Recent price trendhome value +0.5% vs prior period
  • +12-month price forecastappreciation +4.2% vs latest value
  • 0Data trustno source divergences flagged; sources broadly consistent
  • 0Geography resolutionstate-level read; coarser geos aggregate more sales
Our formula reads: +36· AI's considered score now: +18

The AI weighs everything; the formula is the cross-check. How this is calculated.

This is a considered read, not a guarantee. The score is plotted now and at 12, 24 and 36 months; confidence falls and the 36-month read is faded because uncertainty grows with the horizon. How this is calculated.

Price Trajectory

Home-value appreciation for New York — recent observed history, then the forecast out to +1 and +3 years. A projection, not a guarantee.

as of Apr 2026
+25%+12.5%0%-12.5%-25%now+1yr+4.8%70% conf.+3yr+17.4%45% conf. · lower confidenceMay 24May 25
Observed — rising (YoY +)Observed — falling (YoY −)Forecast| 0% baseline · vertical line = now (observed | forecast)

+1yr forecast+4.8%

80% range: -0.2% to +10.0%

Confidence 70% · moderate confidence

+3yr forecast+17.4%

80% range: +13.0% to +22.1%

Confidence 45% · lower confidence — projects further out, so treat with extra caution

Observed bars are the trailing-12-month change in home value (green = rising, red = falling). The orange line is a forecast, not a guarantee — each point shows its confidence, and the +3yr projection is faded with a wider band because it is less certain than the +1yr. Every forecast carries an interval and confidence. How this is calculated.

Affordability

median home $510,449 · income $84,578 · 6.430% 30yr

Cost to own the median home in New York vs local income (P&I, 20% down), and rent vs income.

Mortgage payment-to-income

36%

Stretched

$2,562/mo · worsening (+0.8 pts YoY)

Rent-to-income

22%

Within the 30% guideline

median gross rent vs income

A higher payment-to-income share means buying is less affordable and is a headwind for prices. Thresholds follow standard housing debt-to-income guidance (30% / 43%).

Early-warning signals

4 of 8 flashing caution

Several signals point to cooling — a turn may be building. Each shows its 12-month direction; amber = moving the way that tends to precede a downturn.

  • Days on market42 days↑ +13.5%
  • Months of supply4.6 mo↑ +15.0%
  • Active inventory38,137↓ -4.7%
  • Sale-to-list101.8%→ -0.2%
  • Mortgage rate (30y)US6.43%↓ -4.3%
  • Mortgage delinquencyUS1.89%↑ +6.2%
  • Lending standardsUS8 net% tightening↓ -14.7%
  • Consumer sentimentUS45↓ -14.2%

Local momentum (days-on-market, supply, inventory, sale-to-list) plus national credit, rates, and sentiment. Leading indicators — directional, not a forecast.

Current market indicators

Observed current data for New York (plus macro rates) — distinct from the forecast below, which carries an interval and confidence.

State outlook

New York · home value outlook

point + 80% interval · band widens with the horizon
$500k$533k$566k$599k$632k$510know$517k3mo82% conf$523k6mo78% conf$535k12mo70% conf$566k24mo56% conf$599k36mo45% conf

The shaded band is the 80% prediction interval; it widens with the horizon because uncertainty grows. A projection with a stated interval and confidence — never a guarantee.

Data trust

How much we trust each source. Each source is measured against recorded sales (FHFA, our Tier-1 anchor). We weight recorded transactions higher and flag any source that diverges.

  • FHFA House Price IndexTier 1 · recorded
    ✓

    Tier 1 — recorded repeat-sales; our ground-truth anchor.

    Ensemble weight 1.00

  • County Recorder (recorded deeds)Tier 1 · recorded
    ✓

    Tier 1 — recorded county deeds; treated as ground truth alongside FHFA. Near-perfect agreement with the anchor (bias 0.0pt).

    Ensemble weight 1.00

  • Zillow ResearchTier 2 · modeled
    ✓

    Tracks the recorded index closely (bias −0.2pt) — trusted.

    Ensemble weight 57.23

  • Redfin Data CenterTier 2 · modeled
    ⚠

    Runs ~8% hot vs recorded sales at city/neighborhood level — flagged & down-weighted.

    Ensemble weight 0.18

  • National Assoc. of RealtorsTier 3 · listing / industry
    ⚠

    Runs ~773% soft vs recorded sales at nation level — flagged & down-weighted.

    Ensemble weight 7.12

Flagged divergences

  • nar · median sale price appreciation vs fhfa (nation)bias -772.9% n=3
  • redfin · Median sale price (city)bias +8.4% n=156
  • redfin · Median sale price (neighborhood)bias +6.1% n=64

Verdicts are derived from measured bias versus the FHFA recorded repeat-sales index. This is a data-quality signal, not investment advice; all forecasts carry an interval and stated confidence.

AI analyst note

A generated narrative for New York. Informational only — not financial advice, and no forecast is certain or guaranteed.

Analyst note

[Auto-generated template] New York: home value projected near $539,218 over 36 months (80% interval $449,139–$647,363, confidence 0.45).

Auto-generated template assessment. This was produced deterministically from the underlying data (no AI model was called, because no API key is configured). Every forecast below still shows its prediction interval and confidence.

Outlook

  • Over the next 36 months (Apr 2029), the model projects home value near $539,218, with an 80% interval of $449,139–$647,363 (confidence 0.45, limited).

  • Over the next 3 months (Jul 2026), the model projects home value near $516,864, with an 80% interval of $512,118–$521,653 (confidence 0.82, relatively high).

  • Over the next 6 months (Oct 2026), the model projects home value near $523,787, with an 80% interval of $516,999–$530,664 (confidence 0.78, relatively high).

  • Over the next 12 months (Apr 2027), the model projects home value near $531,862, with an 80% interval of $500,884–$564,756 (confidence 0.70, moderate).

  • Over the next 24 months (Apr 2028), the model projects home value near $568,720, with an 80% interval of $488,181–$662,547 (confidence 0.56, moderate).

  • Over the next 3 months (Jun 2026), the model projects median sale price near $644,269, with an 80% interval of $562,849–$737,466 (confidence 0.50, limited).

Recent trend

  • home value: $510,449 (Apr 2026), +0.5% vs Mar 2026 (source: zillow, tier 2).

  • median sale price: $599,200 (Mar 2026), +0.4% vs Feb 2026 (source: redfin, tier 2).

  • months of supply: 3.80 (Mar 2026), -2.6% vs Feb 2026 (source: redfin, tier 2).

  • active inventory: 31,210 (Mar 2026), +6.1% vs Feb 2026 (source: redfin, tier 2).

  • sale to list: 1.00 (Mar 2026), +0.8% vs Feb 2026 (source: redfin, tier 2).

Data trust

No source divergences were flagged for this geography; recorded (tier-1) and modeled/listing sources are broadly consistent here.

Local news

Recent local/county/state items relevant to this market:

Informational only — not financial advice. No forecast here is certain or guaranteed; every prediction is shown with its interval and confidence, and past accuracy is on the public track record.

As of April 1, 2026. Informational only — not financial advice. No forecast is certain or guaranteed.

Local news

Recent housing-related coverage for New York. Headlines link out to the source.

Counties in New York

shaded by observed 12-mo change · click to drill in
weakerstronger no data